APPLICATION OF THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN EARLY PREDICTING THE SEVERITY OF ATOPIC DERMATITIS IN CHILDREN

The application of mathematically based prognostic software is a rational and promising approach to determining disease prognoses. In our research, we identified indicators as prognostic criteria for the development of atopic dermatitis (AD). Our research involved 260 healthy children and 268 newborns with AD. To select the risk factors for predicting the formation of AD, initially, variation and discriminant analyses were used to identify 50 indicators (out of 109 clinical laboratory indicators) that differed statistically. Then, 28 indicators with a high impact on the final result were selected via disbursement analysis; subsequently, 19 indicators based on specificity and sensitivity were fixed. In the next step, via correlation analysis, we focused on 15 antenatal, intranatal, neonatal, and laboratory risk factors that did not correlate with each other. Based on these indicators, software for the prediction of atopic dermatitis was developed. The software-based on MS EXCEL was developed with the application of theories of probability and “fuzzy logic”, and the Sp and Sn of the test were evaluated accordingly at 78.5±2.5% and 73.1±2.7%, after verification based on a real situation. Based on the research results, cesarean section, wheezing, conjunctivitis, rhinitis, lactose intolerance, sensitive skin, trouble sleeping, constipation, and levels of CD31, MUC-2 and ITF were found to highly influence the development of atopic dermatitis. Thus, our software is applicable for the assessment of AD development based on the abovementioned factors.